Burmese Days

The lake shone mercury white as the plane began its descent to Mandalay airport. I checked my i-phone’s clock, ‘16:43’, and adjusted it back by 90 minutes to get to local time.

“Take me back to Mandalay. Where the flying fishes play. And the sunshine comes like thunder over China across the bay.”

The wistful ‘music-hall’ poem about a serviceman’s longing for the tropics after returning to England was penned by a 24-year-old Rudyard Kipling in 1890 on his own return to England after seven years in India.

But which bay? Mandalay is landlocked. Kipling never came to Mandalay, he only spent three days in Burma (now Myanmar) and mostly in Rangoon (now Yangon). Yet his words are the British-bulldog theme for Burma. Eric Arthur Blair, better known by his pen name George Orwell, came and stayed longer. He traveled and worked in many parts of Burma and certainly traveled to Mandalay, en route to the hill-station of May-Mo (now Pin Oo Lin) where he was stationed for four years as part of the British-India police force.

Image for post
One of Orwell’s May-Mo haunts — a hill station 50 miles from Mandalay

I always picture Orwell in the latter part of his life — hand-rolled cigarette in mouth, scrappy hair, glasses, and the tatter-tatter of the keyboard. This image was on the back of several of his Penguin published books, including 1984, Burmese Days, and Animal Farm that I read as a schoolboy more than three decades ago. But it is The Road to Wigan Pier and Down and Out In Paris and London that I remember more vividly. As I walked the streets of Maymo I tried to imagine how Orwell would have felt as a young serviceman in 1920’s Burma, but it was only the tobacco-stained newspaper-man who came to mind.

George Orwell would have read Kipling’s Road to Mandalay. Maybe it was sung in the British Club or the Candacraig hotel in Maymo on the Gin and Bridge nights that feature in his famous Burma tale. Kipling’s son John, to whom the famous poem ‘If’ was written in 1895, died during the First World War at the bloody Battle of Loos in 1915. He had followed Kitchener’s call to serve the nation in the New Army. ‘If’ was widely printed after its publication in 1910, and likely would often have been framed in Officers’ quarters across British India. We also know that Orwell greatly admired Kitchener, and even before arriving in Burma, when the General died at sea at the hand of a German U-boat torpedo, Orwell wrote an obituary:

KITCHENER

No stone is set to mark his nation’s loss,
No stately tomb enshrines his noble breast;
Not e’en the tribute of a wooden cross
Can mark this hero’s rest.

He needs them not, his name untarnished stands,
Remindful of the mighty deeds he worked,
Footprints of one, upon time’s changeful sands,
Who ne’er his duty shirked.

Who follows in his steps no danger shuns,
Nor stoops to conquer by a shameful deed,
An honest and unselfish race he runs,
From fear and malice freed.

(Copyright the Orwell Foundation 2020, Published in the Henley and South Oxfordshire Standard 21st July 1916)

Burma had a history of British poets and writers grace its shores. Perhaps the earliest was John Leyden, better known to Scotsmen as the poet of Teviotdale, and the friend of Sir Walter Scott. John was a medical doctor who wrote on the languages and literature of the Indochinese nations. He was a surgeon in India, a professor, and also a judge at Calcutta. In1811 he accompanied the Governor-General to Java, and died from a fever caught in the bad air of a warehouse of books he had rushed to examine at Batavia (as Jakarta, the capital, was then known). Sir Walter Scott honoured Leyden’s memory with the following:

“Quenched is his lamp of varied lore,

That loved the light of song to pour,:

A distant and a deadly shore

Has Leyden’s cold remains.’

Myanmar has Jaded Western eyes – now China’s opportunity?

Myanmar is a complex country at the geographic crossroads of India and China and the temporal crossroads of a frontier economy and a failed state. After several years of being wide-open to Western admirers, there is now a potential pivot to China.

In Pakistan, as an example, China has agreed to invest around $70 billion in infrastructure development in recent years, in Myanmar only $15 billion has been invested by China over the past three decades. In 2012 when Myanmar opened up more, it was in part to pivot towards the West, and not become dependent on China. The West eagerly pounced on the opportunity, with Hillary Clinton and President Obama, welcoming the reforms and putting Aung San Su Kyi on a very high pedestal.

The November 2015 elections initially appeared to be a milestone for Myanmar’s reform, and a legacy for the then President Thein Sein, with a sweeping win for Aung San Su Kyi’s party, but the fact that the Generals retained a key 25% block in Parliament quickly started to cast a shadow. Despite that, Billions of dollars of aid and investment flowed into the country, with dramatic impact seen in several areas. Land prices sky-rocketed, and everybody looked at putting a toe in the water.

The shine came off the Golden Land very quickly in 2017 when the problems in Rakhine state illuminated more issues than the West was really keen to know. Firstly, the Military is very good at reacting swiftly and fiercely to any challenge on its borders, as it has been hardened for many years in its battles with Ethnic groups in the northern Shan states. Secondly, the ruling party has little visible power, particularly as it has to contend with the blocking 25% stake held by the Military. Thirdly, Aung San Su Kyi has disappointed many in her apparent inability to act decisively, being the politician first and Nobel Laureate and icon of hope second. Lastly, perhaps more worryingly, is the attitude of the general population themselves to the Rohingya issue.

The Rohingya have little support among Myanmar’s 135 distinct ethnic groups, across the spectrum of religious, economic or educational levels. They are not valued as citizens of Myanmar. Their land sits in an important geographical area which promises access to resources for foreign investors, particularly the Chinese. They do, of course, have different religious beliefs to the majority of the predominantly Buddhist Myanmar people, but the problem is not only about religion.

The refugee crisis that is emerging as a result of the clearing of the Rohingya is possibly the worst in the world, on par with Syria. The world is unprepared. Bangladesh, the recipient of much of the recent influx, possibly numbering close to one million displaced people, is unable to cope and contain these starving and maltreated people.

The pressure on Myanmar will almost certainly increase. Its golden shine has been indelibly tarnished, and the next few years will bring domestic political change, possibly a coalition, or worst still a more pro-Military led parliament, once more, but almost certainly consigning the legacy of Aung San Su Kyi to disgrace. What this means for investors is unknown. There have been some positive improvements for Myanmar’s 60 million people, in particular, a dramatic improvement in its connectivity – now more than 80% of the population have access to a data-enabled phone. Information is more free-flowing, at least for now, for as long as the Military does not interfere too much (It controls one of the four mobile telecoms company, MPT, and is friendly to the fourth, controlled by Vietnam’s military.)

fullsizeoutput_4af8

The Chinese are willing to protect Myanmar’s Generals and may become the source of financing for infrastructure development that is much needed, and which Japan and some of the multilateral agencies may be unwilling or unable to provide if targetted sanctions are re-imposed.

 

 

 

 

 

Myanmar Motors On

0+VSt4UUQ8a+cqPQ3dZVxAFor a large city in ASEAN, one thing is striking about Yangon: there are no motorbikes. Having lived for several years in Vietnam, I got used to the gentle ebb and flow of motorbike traffic, which you can walk through like Moses parting the Red Sea. Yangon is markedly different, The story is that a general/government official was assassinated by someone driving a motorbike, therefore a ban was initiated. The only people allowed to drive motorbikes are policemen and electrical repair-men. I figure that a good business idea would be to buy and electrical repair business and use it as a front for a pizza delivery operation.

The consequence of this is an abundance of cars. Motor Mania in Myanmar.

In the mid-1990s I was involved in a business in Myanmar importing brand new Land Rovers and BMWs and repairing the 3000 odd existing Land Rovers in the country. The business was sold to Astra of Indonesia in the late 1990s not long before the Asian Financial Crisis hit. Astra is now owned by Jardine Cycle & Carriage, a stock I hold today.

There are approximately 430,000 auto-mobiles registered in Yangon, including 57,000 taxis, out of a total of 640,000 vehicles in Myanmar as a whole.

The problems are obvious to visitors to Yangon, pavement parked cars, and slow-moving traffic. Other issues are an increase in road traffic accidents, with almost nine accidents a day leading to two deaths per day in vehicle-related accidents.

Some of the causes problems are subtle – a mixture of left hand and right-hand drive cars, all driving on the right side of the road, and the lack of car-parks or adequate basement parking in buildings. As the economy continues to grow, and as the affluence increases from a low-base, the problem will only get worse in the next few years.