Fifteen years ago Standard Chartered Bank wrote a research report entitled ‘Viva Vietnam’, which highlighted the prospects for the emerging economy of the largest country in Indochina. At the time the stock market was 3 years old and had a market capitalisation of 300 million US Dollars. Fast-forward to December 2017, and the stock market is 70 billion US Dollars in market cap, and there are several hundred companies listed.

The economy grew rapidly from the time that report was published and then suffered a dramatic retreat in 2008 which caused the market to languish for about five years. The last four years have seen a significant re-emergence of the stock market, property market, and an energetic venture capital market.

Vietnam equities are up over 40% in 2017, and there is plenty more interest from regional and global investors that could see this increase further.

Now, firstly, it is far from certain that BitCoin will ever reach $50,000. I suspect, however, that there will be a book with this title in the next few months.

Interestingly, despite the meteoric rise in price from $1,000 to $20,000 in less than a year, in the same period of time, the number of wallets created on a leading UK based blockchain site has only doubled. Presumably meaning the number of users has not increased that much, but that users are trading more frequently or with larger amounts. So this is a very far away from mainstream adoption.

The practical challenge of the increase in value and the increased number of transactions has been congestion in processing speed. At the moment there are over 200,000 unconfirmed transactions, waiting for their place in the ledger.

On Monday it is expected that Futures trading in BitCoin will start, and that should result in more volatility, but perhaps greater price validation.

In the summer of 2020, Tokyo will host the Olympic games. The infrastructure in the City is being upgraded, in particularly the already excellent train network, and there are plans to enhance the English language accessibility of the soft infrastructure.

Tokyo is a great city, and I am sure will host a memorable Olympics. It could mark the renaissance of an economic super-power, or it might be the bookend to an era, as the Emperor will have abdicated the year before.

The Japanese institutional stores of capital are legendary, and also renowned for their conservatism. Abe’s arrows of stimulus have done something to the domestic stability of Japan over the last few years. However, not much has been achieved internationally. This is ironic, as Japanese trading houses have tentacles that creep across the globe. The Trillion Yen held by the saving and pensions funds should seek positive returns from engaging with the global asset management industry, however, fear of failure and concerns on currency risk have kept much of the capital in the domestic capital markets, earning negative nominal returns.

Maybe by 2020, more capital will be flowing into international funds. Let the games begin.

The ten countries of ASEAN each offer much promise, and collectively form a heterogeneous mix of cultures, religions, and opportunities.

Until recently, the unwritten rules of ASEAN were that there should be no political interference.

This has been challenged by the unresolved issues of overlapping claims for islands in the South China Sea, with some ASEAN members being angry at China for their incursions into what they see as territorial waters. Much more recently, the dreadful treatment of the Rohingya in Myanmar’s western Rakhine province has brought disruption to ASEAN. Malaysia has not been happy with the ASEAN chair’s statement on what is going on in Myanmar.

20 years on from the Asian financial crisis that brought the richest of the ASEAN countries close to their knees the issues that face ASEAN are mostly political. 2018 will see General Elections in Cambodia,  Malaysia and possibly Thailand. The next 12 months will see the soft Batik material of ASEAN stretched to the seams.